A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is expected to strengthen into a hurricane that will take aim at Florida midweek.
The center of the system is forecast to the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
The disturbance is forecast to become a hurricane Wednesday and continue to strengthen as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
A tropical storm is defined as having winds of 39 mph or higher and a hurricane of 74 mph or higher, according to the National Weather Service.
The system could strengthen due to a staple fuel for hurricanes: warm water. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are currently between 84 to 89 degrees.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 counties Monday ahead of the potential storm's "significant threat" of heavy rainfall, flooding, storm surge and damaging.
The potential storm may bring 4 to 12 inches of rain to western Cuba and the Cayman Islands and 2 to 6 inches to the eastern Yucatán Peninsula, carrying a risk of flash and urban flooding.
Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding.
Around 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is expected along the southern coast of Pinar del Río in western Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatán Peninsula. In Florida, 1 to 3 feet of storm surge.
A hurricane watch has been issued for Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico, and for Pinar del Río, Cuba. A tropical storm warning is in effect in Rio Lagartos in Tulum and Cuba's Artemisa.